Start Em / Week 16
Matt Schaub QB (HOU)
Notes: Schaub put up decent stats against one of the league's best defenses in Week 15, throwing for 284 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs against Tennessee, although he did lose a fumble. 207 of those yards went to Andre Johnson, who is making a strong case for being regarding as the most dangerous WR in the league. Add Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, and Kevin Walter to the equation, and Schaub is a legitimate fantasy starter for the remainder of the season. This week he'll face the Raiders, who are surrendering 24.9 points per game and last week gave up 4 TD passes to Matt Cassel and the Patriots.
Shaun Hill QB (SF)
Notes: Hill threw for 223 yards with no TDs or INTs against the Dolphins in Week 15, and he had 17 rushing yards as well. It was his first start of the season in which Hill failed to throw at least one TD. Without Frank Gore in the lineup, the 49er offense was limited, and Hill was forced to attempt 46 passes in the game, by far his most of the season. Gore's status for this week's matchup is still uncertain, but Hill's stat line is likely to improve against the Rams, who are giving up 29.8 points per game and rank 24th against the pass. The first time he faced the Rams this season, Hill threw for 213 yards and 2 TDs. He's definitely a risk to start in a championship game, but owners whose regular starters face tough matchups this week could do much worse than Hill.
Pierre Thomas RB (NO)
Notes: Thomas had another great game in Week 15, as he rushed for 87 yards and 1 TD, and caught 7 passes for 59 yards and 1 TD against the Bears. It was Thomas' second straight multi-TD game and his fifth straight with at least one score. Over that five game stretch, Thomas has 574 all-purpose yards and 8 TDs. Thomas is increasingly taking playing time from Reggie Bush and has started the past three games for the Saints. Consider him a must-start this week, as the Saints take on the league's worst scoring defense in Detroit. The Lions have given up 26 rushing TDs and 20 receiving TDs this year, and Thomas will likely add a few more to those totals.
Marshawn Lynch RB (BUF)
Notes: Lynch failed to score for the third straight game in Week 15, but he did put up 150 all-purpose yards on 24 touches against the Jets. Although his scoring drought is reason for some concern, Lynch's physical running against one of the league's best rushing defenses is encouraging for fantasy owners who had to be worried after the Bills scored only 3 points in each of their previous two games. In Week 16, Lynch and the Bills will take on the Broncos, who rank 27th against the run and have given up 19 TDs on the ground this year. Start Lynch with confidence for your championship game.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR (CIN)
Notes: Houshmandzadeh posted his worst stat line of the season in Week 15, as he caught only 3 passes for 19 yards and failed to find the end zone for the fourth straight game. By his standards, Houshmandzadeh has underachieved for most of the season without Carson Palmer throwing him the ball, although he still ranks third in the league with 92 receptions. In Week 16, Houshmandzadeh and the Bengals face the Browns, who gave up 290 passing yards and 2 TDs last week to Donovan McNabb. Houshmandzadeh is a safe start this week and could have a big payoff if he breaks his scoreless streak.
Wes Welker WR (NE)
Notes: Welker scored for the first time in seven games last Sunday, as he caught 6 passes for 69 yards against the Raiders. The TD was only Welker's second of the season, but he is second in the league with 102 receptions and has over 1,000 receiving yards on the season. With Matt Cassel continuing to prove himself as a reliable starter and the Patriots battling for a playoff spot, Welker should see plenty more targets at the end of the season. This week the Patriots face the Cardinals, who have surrendered a league-worst 31 passing TDs this year. Consider Welker a must-start in fantasy championships, as he'll most likely pull down 6-10 receptions and may post his first back-to-back TD games of the season.
Dallas Clark TE (IND)
Notes: Clark had a career game in Week 15, totaling 142 yards and 1 TD on 12 receptions. It was his second straight game with a score and his fourth game of the season with more than 80 yards receiving. Although expecting Clark to duplicate last week's stat line would be overly optimistic, he is still a great start this week, as the Colts take on the Jags Thursday night. Jacksonville has allowed 22 passing TDs on the season, and the Colts are looking to secure a Wild Card spot and atone for a Week 3 loss to the Jags. Expect Manning and the Colts offense to be firing on all cylinders, with Clark again playing a vital role.
SLEEPER-Cedric Benson RB (CIN)
Notes: Benson had an impressive outing against the Redskins in Week 15, with 73 rushing yards on 21 carries and 88 receiving yards on 3 catches. Benson didn't find the end zone, and 79 of those receiving yards came on one screen pass, but he still rewarded many fantasy owners who used him as a 'flex' back in the playoffs. Although he has only 1 TD on the season, Benson has averaged a little over 77 all-purpose yards per game over his past six games and is getting the bulk of the touches in the Bengals backfield. His Week 16 matchup is favorable against the Browns, who rank 28th against the run and are giving up 147.4 yards per game on the ground. Don't expect monster stats, but if you're dealing with injuries or poor matchups with your other RBs, Benson might be worth the gamble this week.
SLEEPER-Jamal Lewis RB (CLE)
Notes: Let's face it, this is hardly a matchup of stalwart defenses, and Lewis has about as much sleeper potential this week as Benson. The Cleveland offense has been terrible with Ken Dorsey at QB, and Lewis has only 56 all-purpose yards over the past two games. Nevertheless, Lewis has traditionally performed well against the Bengals, including a Week 4 performance in which he posted 79 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards, and 1 TD. Cincinnati currently ranks 23rd against the run and is giving up 25.6 yards per game. Like Benson, Lewis is a decent sleeper option for owners facing injuries or matchup problems in their championship games.
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Sit Em / Week 16
Jason Campbell QB (WAS)
Notes:Against a weak Bengals defense, Campbell threw for just 167 yards and 1 TD. Campbell has been a fairly safe and efficient QB this season, but he has only 12 TDs on the season and puts up numbers that make him no better than a No. 2 fantasy QB most weeks. This week Campbell has little value as the Redskins take on the 4th ranked passing defense of the Eagles. Any owner thinking about starting Campbell in a championship game would do better to look for a sleeper candidate this week.
Eli Manning QB (NYG)
Notes:Manning took a beating in Week 15, as the Cowboys sacked him eight times, picked him off twice, forced him to fumble twice, and held him to only 191 passing yards. Over his past two games, Manning has only 314 passing yards, and the Giants' offense is clearly feeling the losses of both Plaxico Burress and Brandon Jacbos. Eli faces another difficult matchup in Week 16 against the Panthers, who are allowing only 18.9 points per game and shut down Jay Cutler and the high-scoring Broncos offense in Week 15. Manning likely won't have as painful an outing as he did last week, but his stat line probably won't be enough to win a championship for fantasy owners.
Marion Barber RB (DAL)
Notes:Returning from a toe injury in Week 15, Barber posted his worst stats of the season with only 8 rushes for 2 yards and 2 receptions for 24 yards against the Giants. Although Barber was given the start, the Cowboys relied heavily on rookie backup Tashard Choice, and it's likely that the same thing will happen this week against Baltimore. Even if he were healthy and getting a full workload, Barber's stats would probably be limited against the Ravens, who rank 3rd against the rush and have given up only 3 TDs on the ground all season. It's difficult to sit a guy who has carried so many fantasy teams for much of the season, but owners have to find a better option than Barber for their championship games.
Larry Johnson RB (KC)
Notes:Johnson rushed for only 55 yards on 17 carries in Week 15 against the chargers, and he added 18 receiving yards on 3 catches. His performance would have been a bust, if not for a TD he threw on an option pass to Tony Gonzalez. Obviously, owners can't expect L.J. to air it out every week, and his average of less than 75 yards per start to go along with only 4 TDs on the season have made him a 'flex' option at best most weeks. In Week 16 the Chiefs face the Dolphins, who are giving up only 97.1 yards per game on the ground and have surrendered just 8 rushing TDs all year. Unless you don't have any better options, sit Johnson this Sunday.
Derrick Mason WR (BAL)
Notes:Mason totaled only 23 yards on 3 receptions against the Steelers in Week 15. Thanks to the emergence of rookie QB Joe Flacco, Mason has quietly had a nice fantasy season, with 68 catches, 894 yards, and 4 TDs on the year. Mason's numbers have been a bit inconsistent throughout the season, though, and he has suffered at times when Flacco struggled against good defenses. The Ravens' Week 16 matchup is far from favorable, as they face the Cowboys, who lead the league with 53 sacks and are allowing only 193.9 passing yards per game. Sit Mason and look for a better No. 3 or 'flex' option this week.
Justin Gage WR (TEN)
Notes:Gage put up solid numbers in a Week 15 loss to the Texans, as he had 3 receptions for 76 yards. While he has an impressive average of 18.9 yards per catch this season, Gage's fantasy value is severely limited due to his lack of targets. He has six games this year with 2 or fewer receptions, including four in which he failed to go over 40 yards. Although he is always a deep threat and could find the end zone any given week, Gage shouldn't be counted on this week for a championship game, as he has a horrible matchup against the top-ranked Steelers defense. Pittsburgh has yet to allow any team to total more than 300 yards against them this season, and they are giving up only 13.7 points per game.
Heath Miller TE (PIT)
Notes:Against the Ravens in Week 15, Miller had 3 catches for 26 yards. Miller has had some decent games this season, but the Steelers are clearly committed to winning with defense, and Ben Roethlisberger has been very conservative in the passing game much of the year. In Week 16 the Steelers face the 5th ranked passing defense of the Titans, who have given up only 9 passing TDs all season. Miller might have a chance for a red zone score, but owners should still try to find a better TE option who will get more targets.
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